Loot Drop Lab

About Loot Drop Lab

Every loot box in every video game runs on a real probability distribution — a rare item at a 2% drop rate really does mean 2%, no matter how many common items came before it. Loot Drop Lab has you predict rare drops and then run simulations to see the actual results, which is usually the fastest way to break the Gambler's Fallacy (the belief that a rare drop is “due” after a dry streak).

Independence, expected value, and the Law of Large Numbers all show up here in a form that's immediately checkable — open enough chests and the simulated results converge on the stated rate, exactly like probability theory predicts.